Key messages

  • Disasters have inflicted an estimated USD 3.26 trillion in agricultural losses over 33 years (1991–2023), averaging at USD 99 billion per year, with cereal crops bearing the heaviest burden at 4.6 billion tonnes of losses, followed by fruits and vegetables (2.8 billion tonnes), and with meat and dairy losing 900 million tonnes.
  • At a regional level, Africa is estimated to bear the highest relative burden at 7.4 percent of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) despite lower absolute losses. Lower-middle-income countries face the highest relative losses at 5 percent of agricultural GDP, exceeding both low-income countries (3 percent) and high-income countries (4 percent), revealing a critical gap where high exposure and vulnerability combine with limited resilient infrastructure.
  • Losses in production resulting from disasters correspond to a reduced availability of 320 kcal per person per day globally, with iron losses corresponding to 60 percent of requirements for men and critical shortfalls in essential vitamins and minerals that have the potential to disproportionately affect vulnerable populations.
  • Marine heatwaves alone are estimated to have caused USD 6.6 billion in fisheries losses (1985–2022), with 15 percent of global fisheries affected and production losses exceeding 5.6 million tonnes, demonstrating the severe yet largely unmeasured impacts on aquatic food systems. Still, fisheries and aquaculture remain largely invisible in disaster assessments despite providing livelihoods for 500 million people.
  • Disaster impacts on agriculture extend far beyond immediate production losses to include infrastructure damage, market disruptions, financial system failures and ecosystem service degradation that can persist for years after initial events. Current assessment tools must be extended to systematically capture both direct and indirect impacts and take into consideration non-economic values, differentiated effects on vulnerable groups, biodiversity losses and long-term ecosystem disruptions.
  • Digital technologies and tools are revolutionizing risk monitoring in agriculture. Interoperable digital platforms transform raw climate, soil, socioeconomic and hazard data into actionable intelligence. Advanced analytics powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) now deliver integrated hyperlocal, real-time and actionable risk information.
  • Given their potential to reduce the risk and impact of disasters, digital solutions are critical for agrifood system resilience. Data platforms bridge infrastructure gaps and allow for the timely and at-scale deployment of risk transfer mechanisms – for example, insurance or social protection. Advanced analytics help improve early-warning systems and design anticipatory actions.
  • Digital solutions allow for a shift from a reactive response to proactive risk reduction and prevention. Improved access to real-time and actionable intelligence strengthens the ability of policymakers and farmers to take risk-informed decisions.
  • A digital transformation requires a comprehensive enabling environment. Digital transformation succeeds when innovation is matched with sustained investment in capacity development, institutional strengthening and enabling infrastructure. Coherent policy frameworks are essential to scale and sustain digital solutions, ensure alignment with local priorities and create the conditions for long-term resilience building across agrifood systems.
  • Human-centred design (HCD) dramatically improves adoption and impact. Digital solutions are most effective when they are co-designed with the communities they are supposed to serve – for example, smallholder farmers. Evidence shows that human-centred approaches significantly boost adoption and ensure that the benefits of digital innovation reach those most vulnerable and exposed to disaster risks.
  • Transformative disaster risk management in agriculture is driven by digital solutions that are embedded within strong institutions, supported by human capacity and enabled by robust infrastructure. The most effective interventions combine innovation with sustained capacity building, participatory design, and alignment with existing systems to address multiple dimensions of risk and vulnerability.
  • Context-specific, adaptive approaches and strong multi-stakeholder partnerships are essential for successful digital solutions. Tailoring tools to local conditions and fostering collaboration across government, research the private sector, civil society, and farming communities ensures scalable, interoperable, and sustainable impacts.

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