注释

引用格式要求：
粮农组织。2024。《2023年灾害对农业和粮食安全的影响：通过投资提高韧性以避免和减少损失》。罗马。. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc7900zh

本信息产品中使用的名称和介绍的材料，并不意味着联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）对任何国家、领地、城市、地区或其当局的 法律或发展状况，或对其国界或边界的划分表示任何意见。地图上的虚线表示可能尚未完全达成一致的大致边界线。提及具体的公 司或厂商产品，无论是否含有专利，并不意味着这些公司或产品得到粮农组织的认可或推荐，优于未提及的其它类似公司或产品。

ISBN 978-92-5-138677-4
©粮农组织，2024年

保留部分权利。本作品根据知识共享署名4.0国际公共许可（CC BY 4.0: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.zh-hans)公开。

根据该许可条款，本作品可被复制、再次传播和改编，但必须恰当引用。使用本作品时不应暗示粮农组织认可任何具体的组织、 产品 或服务。不允许使用粮农组织标识。如翻译本作品，必须包含所要求的引用和下述免责声明：“本译文并非由联合国粮食及农业组织 （粮农组织）生成。粮农组织不对本译文的内容或准确性负责。原英文版本应为权威版本。”

本许可产生或与之相关的争议和争端均应友好解决。如果无法就争端问题或仲裁之外的解决方式达成协议，相关各方应有权要求 根据联合国国际贸易法委员会（贸法委）的仲裁规定进行仲裁。根据上述规定作出的仲裁裁决为任何争议的最终裁决，对各方具有 约束力。

第三方材料和照片。 欲再利用本作品中属于第三方的材料（如表格、图形或图片）的用户，需自行判断再利用是否需要许可，并自行 向版权持有者申请许可。对任何第三方所有的材料侵权而导致的索赔风险完全由用户承担。本作品中可能包含的照片不属于上文 公共许可范围。所有照片的使用征询应递交至：photo-library@fao.org。

销售、权利和授权。 粮农组织信息产品可在粮农组织网站（https://www.fao.org/publications/zh）获得，也可通过 publicationssales@fao.org购买。商业性使用的申请应递交至：www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request。关于权利和授权的 征询应递交至： copyright@fao.org。

封面图片: ©Toon de Vos/Pexels.com

荷兰王国。 平均有1.2万公顷的棉花、玉米和核桃等作物受到降雨和河水泛滥的影响。

• ¹ General Assembly of the United Nations. 2017. Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction. Seventy-first session Agenda item 19 (c) Sustainable development: disaster risk reduction. New York, United Nations. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/852089?ln=en
• ² EM-DAT. 2023. Disasters in numbers 2022. In: CRED. Brussels. https://cred.be/sites/default/files/2022_EMDAT_report.pdf
• ³ UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) & ISC (International Science Council). 2020. Hazard Definition & Classification Review. Technical Report. Geneva, UNDRR and Paris, ISC. www.preventionweb.net/media/47681/download?startDownload=true
• ⁴ General Assembly of the United Nations. 2016. Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction. Seventy-first session Agenda item 19 (c) Sustainable development: disaster risk reduction. New York, United Nations. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/852089?ln=fr
• ⁵ IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2022. Climate Change 2022 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama, eds. pp. 3056. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, Cambridge University Press. doi.org.10.1017/9781009325844
• ⁶ Conforti, P., Markova, G. & Tochkov, D. 2020. FAO’s Methodology for Damage and Loss Assessment in Agriculture. FAO Statistics Division Working Paper Series/19–17. Rome, FAO. http://www.fao.org/3/ca6990en/CA6990EN.pdf.
• ⁷ Holleman, C., Rembold, F., Crespo, O. & Conti, V. 2020. The impact of climate variability and extremes on agriculture and food security – An analysis of the evidence and case studies. Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study No. 4. Rome, FAO. doi.org/10.4060/cb2415en
• ⁸ World Bank. 2022. Pakistan: Flood Damages and Economic Losses Over USD 30 billion and Reconstruction Needs Over USD 16 billion – New Assessment. In: The World Bank. Washington, DC. [Cited May 2023]. www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme
• ⁹ NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information). 2020. U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–present (NCEI Accession 0209268). In: NOAA. Washington, DC. [Cited 13 May 2023]. doi.org/10.25921/stkw-7w73
• ¹⁰ IOM (International Organization for Migration). 2021. Corredor seco Honduras 2021: Línea base vulnerabilidad y sequía. In: IOM. Grand-Saconnex, Switzerland. [Cited 5 May 2022]. https://dtm.iom.int/reports/l%C3%ADnea-base-vulnerabilidad-y-sequ%C3%ADa-corredor-seco-honduras-noviembre-2020
• ¹¹ WFP (World Food Programme). 2021. Charting a New Regional Course of Action: The Complex Motivations and Costs of Central American Migration. Rome. www.wfp.org/publications/complex-motivations-and-costs-central-american-migration
• ¹² UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). 2021. Cambio climático, otro factor que provoca desplazamiento en Honduras. In: UNHCR. Geneva. [Cited November 2021]. www.acnur.org/noticias/stories/cambio-climatico-otro-factor-que-provoca-desplazamiento-en-honduras
• ¹³ Netherer, S., Panassiti, B., Pennerstorfer, J. & Matthews, B. 2019. Acute Drought Is an Important Driver of Bark Beetle Infestation in Austrian Norway Spruce Stands. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2: 39. doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00039
• ¹⁴ Valadez, M. & de la Lama, G.M. 2023. Heat Stress in Cattle. Animal Behaviour and Welfare Cases. [Cited 31 March 2023]. doi.org/10.1079/abwcases.2023.0005
• ¹⁵ Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Mayberry, D. & Herrero, M. 2022. Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(3): e192–e201. doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00002-X
• ¹⁶ Peng, S., Huang, J., Sheehy, J.E., Laza, R.C., Visperas, R.M., Zhong, X., Centeno, G.S., Khush, G.S. & Cassman, K.G. 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(27): 9971–9975. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403720101
• ¹⁷ Schlenker, W. & Roberts, M.J. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(37): 15594–15598. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106
• ¹⁸ Fernie, E., Tan, D.K.Y., Liu, S.Y., Ullah, N. & Khoddami, A. 2022. Post-Anthesis Heat Influences Grain Yield, Physical and Nutritional Quality in Wheat: A Review. Agriculture, 12(6): 886. doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12060886
• ¹⁹ Bishop, J., Bell, T., Huang, C. & Ward, M. 2021. Fire on the Farm: Assessing the impacts of the 2019–2020 bushfires on food and agricultures in Australia. World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF). https://assets.wwf.org.au/image/upload/v1/website-media/resources/WWF_Report-Fire_on_the_Farm_converted
• ²⁰ Banca d’Italia. 2022. Gli effetti del cambiamento climatico sull’economia italiana. Questioni di Economia e Finanza. No. 728. Rome. www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2022-0728/QEF_728_22.pdf
• ²¹ Brás, T.A., Seixas, J., Carvalhais, N. & Jägermeyr, J. 2021. Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 16(6): 065012. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf004
• ²² IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). 2022. Mozambique: Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth – Emergency Appeal n° MDRMZ014, Final Report. In: ReliefWeb. [Cited July 2023]. https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/mozambique-tropical-cyclones-idai-and-kenneth-emergency-appeal-ndeg-mdrmz014-final-report
• ²³ EU Science Hub. 2023. The EU 2022 wildfire season was the second worst on record. In: European Commission. [Cited 10 March 2023]. https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/eu-2022-wildfire-season-was-second-worst-record-2023-05-02_en
• ²⁴ You, S., Liu, T., Zhang, M., Zhao, X., Dong, Y., Wu, B., Wang, Y., Li, J., Wei, X. & Shi, B. 2021. African swine fever outbreaks in China led to gross domestic product and economic losses. Nature Food, 2021(10): 802–808. doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00362-1
• ²⁵ WFP (World Food Programme). 2022. Pakistan Country Brief, October 2022. Rome. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/wfp-pakistan-country-brief-october-2022
• ²⁶ FAO. 2023. Türkiye earthquakes: initial assessment indicates losses of more than 20 percent in food production. In: FAO. Rome. [Cited 10 March 2023]. www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/turkiye-earthquakes-initial-assessment-indicates-losses-of-more-than-20-percent-in-food-production/en
• ²⁷ Asian Development Bank. 2021. Asian Development Outlook 2021 Update: Transforming Agriculture in Asia. Manila. www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/726556/ado2021-update.pdf
• ²⁸ African Development Bank Group. 2016. Feed Africa: Strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa. 2016–2025. Abidjan. www.afdb.org/en/documents/document/feed-africa-strategy-for-agricultural-transformation-in-africa-2016-2025-89888
• ²⁹ FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. 2023. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023: Urbanization, agrifood systems transformations and healthy diets across the rural-urban continuum. Rome, FAO. doi.org/10.4060/cc3017en
• ³⁰ Kunbhar, Z. 2022. Floods after drought devastate Sindh’s Agriculture. In: The Third Pole. [Cited 26 August 2022]. www.thethirdpole.net/en/food/floods-after-drought-devastate-sindh-agriculture/
• ³¹ Government of Pakistan. 2022. Pakistan Meteorological Department: Drought Alert-1 (16 May 2022). In: Reliefweb. [Cited May 2023]. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-meteorological-department-drought-alert-i-16-may-2022
• ³² Mushtaq, F., Ali, M., Ghosh, A., Jalal, R., Asghar, A., Dadhich, G., Chiozza, F. et al. 2022. A rapid geospatial flood impact assessment in Pakistan. Rome, FAO. https://www.fao.org/geospatial/resources/detail/en/c/1629466/
• ³³ Government of Pakistan. 2022. Pakistan Floods 2022: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. In: Reliefweb. [Cited May 2023]. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-2022-post-disaster-needs-assessment
• ³⁴ Kugelman, M. 2022. Foreign Policy, Pakistan’s Flood Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis. Foreign Policy. 8 September 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/08/pakistan-floods-food-security-crisis/
• ³⁵ IRC (International Rescue Committee). 2023. Six months on since the Pakistan floods, 8.6 million people are facing hunger: IRC calls for world leaders to address the imbalance of climate change. In: IRC. [Cited May 2023]. www.rescue.org/press-release/six-months-pakistan-floods-86-million-people-are-facing-hunger-irc-calls-world
• ³⁶ IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification). 2022. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis July – December 2022. In: Reliefweb. [Cited May 2023]. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/khyber-pakhtunkhwa-pakistan-ipc-acute-food-insecurity-analysis-july-december-2022-published-december-30-2022
• ³⁷ IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre). 2023. 2023 Global Report on Internal Displacement. Geneva, IDMC. www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2023/
• ³⁸ IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). 2022. Central America: Hurricanes Eta & Iota – Final Report (MDR43007). IFRC. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/central-america-hurricanes-eta-iota-final-report-mdr43007
• ³⁹ Ruiz Soto, A.G., Bottone, R., Waters, J., Williams, S., Louie, A. & Wang, Y. 2021. Charting a New Regional Course of Action: The Complex Motivations and Costs of Central American Migration. Migration Policy Institute. www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/mpi-wfp-mit_migration-motivations-costs_final.pdf
• ⁴⁰ Rubi, M. & Gaynor, T. 2021. In Honduras, climate change is one more factor sparking displacement. In: UNHCR. Geneva. [Cited March 2023]. https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/honduras-climate-change-one-more-factor-sparking-displacement
• ⁴¹ ILO. 2023. Employment by sex and age (thousands) – Annual. In: ILOSTAT. Geneva. [Cited March 2023]. www.ilo.org/shinyapps/bulkexplorer53/?lang=en&segment=indicator&id=EMP_TEMP_SEX_AGE_NB_A
• ⁴² Botreau, H. & Cohen, M.J. 2019. Gender inequalities and food insecurity: Ten years after the food price crisis, why are women farmers still food-insecure? Oxfam. http://hdl.handle.net/10546/620841
• ⁴³ FAO. 2021. The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security: 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb3673en
• ⁴⁴ Government of Pakistan. 2023. Introduction. In: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. [Cited March 2023]. www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics#:~:text=It%20contributes%20about%2024%20percent,source%20of%20foreign%20exchange%20earnings
• ⁴⁵ ILO. 2023. Employment by sex and age (thousands) – Annual. In: ILOSTAT. Geneva. [Cited March 2023]. www.ilo.org/shinyapps/bulkexplorer53/?lang=en&segment=indicator&id=EMP_TEMP_SEX_AGE_NB_A
• ⁴⁶ Chowdhury, J.R., Parida, Y. & Agarwal, P. 2022. How flood affects rural employment in India: A gender analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 73: 102881. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102881
• ⁴⁷ UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2023. Multidimensional Vulnerability Index. In: UNDP. New York. [Cited July 2023]. https://data.undp.org/sids/app/vulnerability/mvi-index/spider
• ⁴⁸ Maino, R. & Emrullahu, D. 2022. Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations. IMF Working Papers, 2022(054): 1. doi.org/10.5089/9798400204869.001
• ⁴⁹ Molua, E.L. 2009. An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon. Global and Planetary Change, 67(3–4): 205–208. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.02.006
• ⁵⁰ Mazhin, SA., Farrokhi, M., Noroozi, M., Roudini, J., Hosseini, S.A., Motlagh, M.E., Kolivand, P. & Khankeh, H. Worldwide disaster loss and damage databases: A systematic review. J Educ Health Promot. 2021 Sep 30;10:329. doi: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_1525_20. PMID: 34761015; PMCID: PMC8552254 https://doi.org/10.4103%2Fjehp.jehp_1525_20
• ⁵¹ UNDRR. 2016. Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction. UNDRR. www.preventionweb.net/publication/report-open-ended-intergovernmental-expert-working-group-indicators-and-terminology
• ⁵² Abbade, E.B. 2015. Environmental impacts of food supply and obesogenic severity worldwide. British Food Journal, 117(12): 2863–2879. doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-12-2014-0404
• ⁵³ WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2023. Economic costs of weather-related disasters soars but early warnings save lives. In: WMO. Geneva. March 2023. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/economic-costs-of-weather-related-disasters-soars-early-warnings-save-lives
• ⁵⁴ Jones, R.L., Guha-Sapir, D. & Tubeuf, S. 2022. Human and economic impacts of natural disasters: can we trust the global data? Scientific Data, 9(1): 572. doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01667-x
• ⁵⁵ CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) & UNDRR. 2018. Economic Losses, Poverty & Disasters 1998-2017. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/economic-losses-poverty-disasters-1998-2017
• ⁵⁶ UNDRR. 2022. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction – Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future. Geneva. www.undrr.org/GAR2022
• ⁵⁷ FAO. 2018. The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security 2017. Rome. https://www.fao.org/3/I8656EN/i8656en.pdf
• ⁵⁸ World Bank & FAO. 2018. Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia (Overview). Somalia Country Economic Memorandum Volume 1. Rome, FAO. https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=I8842EN%2f
• ⁵⁹ IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests – A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en
• ⁶⁰ Goergen, G., Kumar, P.L., Sankung, S.B., Togola, A. & Tamò, M. 2016. First Report of Outbreaks of the Fall Armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J E Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), a New Alien Invasive Pest in West and Central Africa. PLOS ONE, 11(10): e0165632. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165632
• ⁶¹ Kenis, M., Benelli, G., Biondi, A., Calatayud, P.-A., Day, R., Desneux, N., Harrison, R.D. et al. 2022. Invasiveness, biology, ecology, and management of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda. Entomologia Generalis, 102198. doi.org/10.1127/entomologia/2022/1659
• ⁶² Montezano, D.G., Specht, A., Sosa-Gómez, D.R., Roque-Specht, V.F., Sousa-Silva, J.C., Paula-Moraes, S.V., Peterson, J.A. & Hunt, T.E. 2018. Host Plants of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Americas. African Entomology, 26(2): 286–300. https://doi.org/10.4001/003.026.0286
• ⁶³ Day, R., Abrahams, P., Bateman, M., Beale, T., Clottey, V., Cock, M., Colmenarez, Y. et al. 2017. Fall Armyworm: Impacts and Implications for Africa. Outlooks on Pest Management, 28(5): 196–201. doi.org/10.1564/v28_oct_02
• ⁶⁴ Abrahams, P., Bateman, M., Beale, T., Clottey, V., Cock, M., Colemenarez, Y., Corniani, N. et al. 2017. Fall armyworm: impacts and implications for Africa. Evidence Note. 2. CABI. www.invasive-species.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/FAW-Evidence-Note-October-2018.pdf
• ⁶⁵ Chimweta, M., Nyakudya, I.W., Jimu, L. & Bray Mashingaidze, A. 2020. Fall armyworm [Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith)] damage in maize: management options for flood-recession cropping smallholder farmers. International Journal of Pest Management, 66(2): 142–154. doi.org/10.1080/09670874.2019.1577514
• ⁶⁶ Baudron, F., Zaman-Allah, M.A., Chaipa, I., Chari, N. & Chinwada, P. 2019. Understanding the factors influencing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantifying its impact on yield. A case study in Eastern Zimbabwe. Crop Protection, 120: 141–150. doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2019.01.028
• ⁶⁷ Overton, K., Maino, J.L., Day, R., Umina, P.A., Bett, B., Carnovale, D., Ekesi, S., Meagher, R. & Reynolds, O.L. 2021. Global crop impacts, yield losses and action thresholds for fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda): A review. Crop Protection, 145: 105641. doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2021.105641
• ⁶⁸ Davis, F.M., Ng, S.S. & Williams, W.P. 1992. Visual rating scales for screening whorl-stage corn for resistance to fall armyworm. Technical bulletin – Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station (USA), 186:9.
• ⁶⁹ Murray, D.A.H., Clarke, M.B. & Ronning, D.A. 2013. The Current and Potential Costs of Invertebrate Pests in Grain Crops. Grains Research and Development Corporation. https://grdc.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0026/159281/grdcreportcurrentpotentialcostsinvertebratepests-feb2013pdf.pdf-QR-code-editpdf.pdf
• ⁷⁰ Zacarias, D.A. 2020. Global bioclimatic suitability for the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), and potential co-occurrence with major host crops under climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 161(4): 555–566. doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02722-5
• ⁷¹ Ramasamy, M., Das, B. & Ramesh, R. 2022. Predicting climate change impacts on potential worldwide distribution of fall armyworm based on CMIP6 projections. Journal of Pest Science, 95(2): 841–854. doi.org/10.1007/s10340-021-01411-1
• ⁷² Tambo, J.A., Kansiime, M.K., Rwomushana, I., Mugambi, I., Nunda, W., Mloza Banda, C., Nyamutukwa, S., Makale, F. & Day, R. 2021. Impact of fall armyworm invasion on household income and food security in Zimbabwe. Food and Energy Security, 10(2): 299–312. doi.org/10.1002/fes3.281
• ⁷³ Deshmukh, S., Pavithra, H.B., Kalleshwaraswamy, C.M., Shivanna, B.K., Maruthi, M.S. & Mota-Sanchez, D. 2020. Field Efficacy of Insecticides for Management of Invasive Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Maize in India. Florida Entomologist, 103(2): 221–227. doi.org/10.1653/024.103.0211
• ⁷⁴ Grande, F., Ueda, Y., Masangwi, S., Moltedo, A., Brivio, R., Selek, A., Vannuccini, S., Tayyib, S. & Holmes, B. 2023. Global Nutrient Conversion Table for FAO Supply Utilization Accounts. Rome, FAO.
• ⁷⁵ Institute of Medicine. 1997. Dietary Reference Intakes for Calcium, Phosphorus, Magnesium, Vitamin D, and Fluoride. Washington, DC., The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/5776/dietary-reference-intakes-for-calcium-phosphorus-magnesium-vitamin-d-and-fluoride
• ⁷⁶ Institute of Medicine. 1998. Dietary Reference Intakes for Thiamin, Riboflavin, Niacin, Vitamin B6, Folate, Vitamin B12, Pantothenic Acid, Biotin, and Choline. Washington, DC., The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/6015/dietary-reference-intakes-for-thiamin-riboflavin-niacin-vitamin-b6-folate-vitamin-b12-pantothenic-acid-biotin-and-choline
• ⁷⁷ Institute of Medicine. 2000. Dietary Reference Intakes for Vitamin C, Vitamin E, Selenium, and Carotenoids. Washington, DC., The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/9810/dietary-reference-intakes-for-vitamin-c-vitamin-e-selenium-and-carotenoids
• ⁷⁸ Institute of Medicine. 2001. Dietary Reference Intakes for Vitamin A, Vitamin K, Arsenic, Boron, Chromium, Copper, Iodine, Iron, Manganese, Molybdenum, Nickel, Silicon, Vanadium, and Zinc. Washington, DC., The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10026/dietary-reference-intakes-for-vitamin-a-vitamin-k-arsenic-boron-chromium-copper-iodine-iron-manganese-molybdenum-nickel-silicon-vanadium-and-zinc
• ⁷⁹ FAO. 2020. Global Forest Resources Assessment: 2020 Key Findings. Rome. www.fao.org/3/CA8753EN/CA8753EN.pdf
• ⁸⁰ Bond, W.J., Woodward, F.I. & Midgley, G.F. 2005. The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytologist, 165(2): 525–538. doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01252.x
• ⁸¹ Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D’Antonio, C.M. et al. 2009. Fire in the Earth System. Science, 324(5926): 481–484. doi.org/10.1126/science.1163886
• ⁸² FAO. 2018. The State of the World’s Forests 2018: Forest pathways to sustainable development. Rome. www.fao.org/publications/card/fr/c/I9535EN
• ⁸³ FAO & UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2020. The State of the World’s Forests 2020: Forests, biodiversity and people. Rome, FAO and Nairobi, UNEP. doi.org/10.4060/ca8642en
• ⁸⁴ Doerr, S.H. & Santín, C. 2016. Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 371(1696): 20150345. doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0345
• ⁸⁵ Giglio, L., Randerson, J.T., Van Der Werf, G.R., Kasibhatla, P.S., Collatz, G.J., Morton, D.C. & DeFries, R.S. 2010. Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products. Biogeosciences, 7(3): 1171–1186. doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010
• ⁸⁶ van Lierop, P., Lindquist, E., Sathyapala, S. & Franceschini, G. 2015. Global forest area disturbance from fire, insect pests, diseases and severe weather events. Forest Ecology and Management, 352: 78–88. doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.010
• ⁸⁷ GWIS (Global Wildfire Information System). 2022. Country Profile. In: GWIS. [Cited January 2023]. https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/country.profile
• ⁸⁸ Chuvieco, E., Roteta, E., Sali, M., Stroppiana, D., Boettcher, M., Kirches, G., Storm, T. et al. 2022. Building a small fire database for Sub-Saharan Africa from Sentinel-2 high-resolution images. Science of The Total Environment, 845: 157139. doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157139
• ⁸⁹ UNEP & GRID-Arendal. 2022. Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires. www.unep.org/resources/report/spreading-wildfire-rising-threat-extraordinary-landscape-fires
• ⁹⁰ IPCC. 2019. Special Report: Climate Change and Land. Special Report. Geneva. www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
• ⁹¹ Flannigan, M.D., Krawchuk, M.A., De Groot, W.J., Wotton, B.M. & Gowman, L.M. 2009. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18(5): 483. doi.org/10.1071/WF08187
• ⁹² Boschetti, L., Sparks, A., Roy, D.P., Giglio, L. & San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. 2020. GWIS national and sub-national fire activity data from the NASA MODIS Collection 6 Burned Area Product in support of policy making, carbon inventories and natural resource management, developed under NASA Applied Sciences grant #80NSSC18K0400. Using the NASA Polar Orbiting Fire Product Record to Enhance and Expand the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/country.profile/downloads
• ⁹³ European Commission, Joint Research Centre. 2022. Pan-European wildfire risk assessment. EU Publications. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/9429
• ⁹⁴ Bowman, D.M.J.S., Williamson, G.J., Abatzoglou, J.T., Kolden, C.A., Cochrane, M.A. & Smith, A.M.S. 2017. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1(3): 1–6. doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058
• ⁹⁵ FAO. 2019. FAO Strategy on Forest Fire Management. Rome. www.fao.org/forestry/49772-0e64392e1b16124967bab33b6cbd84417.pdf
• ⁹⁶ Haubrock, P.J., Turbelin, A.J., Cuthbert, R.N., Novoa, A., Taylor, N.G., Angulo, E., Ballesteros-Mejia, L. et al. 2021. Economic costs of invasive alien species across Europe. NeoBiota, 67: 153–190. doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.67.58196
• ⁹⁷ USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Forest Service. 2009. Major Forest Insect and Disease Conditions in the United States: 2009 Update. USDA Forest Service FS-952. www.fs.usda.gov/foresthealth/publications/ConditionsReport_2009.pdf
• ⁹⁸ Pimentel, D., Lach, L., Zuniga, R. & Morrison, D. 2000. Environmental and Economic Costs of Nonindigenous Species in the United States. BioScience, 50(1): 53. [0053:EAECON]2.3.CO;2. https://entnemdept.ufl.edu/Hodges/als4161/Secure/PDF%20Files/Articles/Environmental_and_Economic.pdf
• ⁹⁹ Fei, S., Morin, R.S., Oswalt, C.M. & Liebhold, A.M. 2019. Biomass losses resulting from insect and disease invasions in US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(35): 17371–17376. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820601116
• ¹⁰⁰ Turner, J.A., Buongiorno, J., Zhu, S., Prestemon, J.P., Li, R. & Bulman, L.S. 2007. Modelling the impact of the exotic forest pest Nectria on the New Zealand forest sector and its major trading partners. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 37(3): 383–411. www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/ja_turner009.pdf
• ¹⁰¹ Williams, F., Eschen, R., Harris, A., Djeddour, D., Pratt, C., Shaw, R.S., Varia, S. et al. 2010. The economic cost of invasive non-native species on Great Britain. Wallingford, CABI. www.cabi.org/VetMedResource/ebook/20123122024
• ¹⁰² Commonwealth of Australia. 2018. Australia’s State of the Forests Report 2018. Canberra, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, ABARES. https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/forestsaustralia/sofr/sofr-2018
• ¹⁰³ Wills, A.J. & Farr, J.D. 2017. Gumleaf skeletoniser Uraba lugens (Lepidoptera: Nolidae) larval outbreaks occur in high rainfall Western Australian jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest after drought: Uraba lugens dryness index. Austral Entomology, 56(4): 424–432. doi.org/10.1111/aen.12255
• ¹⁰⁴ Cameron, N.L., Carnegie, A.J., Wardlaw, T., Lawson, S. & Venn, T. 2018. Economic appraisal of Sirex Wood Wasp (Sirex noctilio) control in Australian pine plantations. Australian Forestry, 81(1): 37–45. doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2018.1430436
• ¹⁰⁵ Nahrung, H.F. & Carnegie, A.J. 2020. Non-native Forest Insects and Pathogens in Australia: Establishment, Spread, and Impact. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 3: 37. doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.00037
• ¹⁰⁶ Mota, M.M. & Vieira, P., eds. 2008. Pine Wilt Disease: A Worldwide Threat to Forest Ecosystems. Dordrecht, Springer Netherlands. doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8455-3
• ¹⁰⁷ Forest Agency. 2020. Annual Report on Forest and Forestry in Japan. Tokyo, Japan. www.maff.go.jp/e/data/publish/attach/pdf/index-208.pdf
• ¹⁰⁸ Natural Resources Canada. 2020. The State of Canada’s Forests. Annual Report 2020. Ottawa, Canada Forest Service. https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=40219
• ¹⁰⁹ Gomez, D.F., Sathyapala, S. & Hulcr, J. 2020. Towards Sustainable Forest Management in Central America: Review of Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) Outbreaks, Their Causes, and Solutions. Forests, 11(2): 173. doi.org/10.3390/f11020173
• ¹¹⁰ Billings, R. 2015. Second evaluation of a major pine beetle outbreak in Honduras and recommendations for direct control. Unpublished Report. USDA Forest Service/International Programs and US Agency for International Development.
• ¹¹¹ Billings, R. 2019. Technical assistance visit to the Dominican Republic to evaluate and make recommendations for direct control of an outbreak of the pine bark beetle Ips calligraphus. Unpublished Report. College Station, Texas, USDA Forest Service/International Programs, Texas Forest Service.
• ¹¹² Jiménez G., A.A., Cordón Cabrera, P.R. & Agramonte, J.E. 2022. Fluctuación poblacional de Ips calligraphus en pinares de la vertiente norte de la cordillera Central, República Dominicana. Novitates Caribaea, (20): 137–154. doi.org/10.33800/nc.vi20.314
• ¹¹³ Hernández Paz, M. 1975. El gorgojo de la corteza, plaga principal de los pinares. Corporación Hondureña de Desarrollo Forestal.
• ¹¹⁴ Billings, R. 1982. Evaluation and recommendations for control of the 1982 outbreak of Dendroctonus in the pine forests of Honduras. Unpublished Report. Lufkin, Texas, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Office of International Cooperation and Development/United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
• ¹¹⁵ Macias Sámano, J.E., Billings, R.F. & Espino Mendoza, V. 2017. Guía para implementar el método de cortar y dejar y la franja de contención como medios de control del gorgojo descortezador del pino, Dendroctonus frontalis, en Centroamérica y México. Washington, D.C. and Tegucigalpa, Honduras, Instituto Nacional de Conservación y Desarrollo Forestal, Areas Protegidas y Vida Silvestre (Tegucigalpa, Honduras) and USDA Forest Service, International Programs.
• ¹¹⁶ Billings, R., Clarke, S.R., Espino Mendoza, V., Cordon Cabrera, P., Melendez Figueroa, B., Ramon Campos, J. & Baeza, G. 2004. Bark beetle outbreaks and fire: A devastating combination for central America’s pine forests. Unasylva, 55: 10–15. https://www.fao.org/3/y5507e/y5507e05.htm
• ¹¹⁷ Paveglio, T.B., Brenkert-Smith, H., Hall, T. & Smith, A.M.S. 2015. Understanding social impact from wildfires: advancing means for assessment. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 24(2): 212. doi.org/10.1071/WF14091
• ¹¹⁸ Walz, Y., Janzen, S., Narvaez, L., Ortiz-Vargas, A., Woelki, J., Doswald, N. & Sebesvari, Z. 2021. Disaster-related losses of ecosystems and their services. Why and how do losses matter for disaster risk reduction? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 63: 102425. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102425
• ¹¹⁹ FAO. 2022. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2022: Towards Blue Transformation. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cc0461en
• ¹²⁰ Barange, M., Bahri, T., Beveridge, M.C.M., Cochrane, K.L., Funge-Smith, S. & Poulain, F. 2018. Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture. Synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. T627. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/3/i9705en/i9705en.pdf
• ¹²¹ Hampton, I., Githaiga-Mwicigi, J., Lamberth, S., Pitcher, G.C., Pretorius, M., Van Der Lingen, C. & Yemane, D. 2017. Report of the DAFF Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in the South African Marine Fisheries and Marine Aquaculture Sectors, 11–12 October 2016. Sea Point, Cape Town, DAFF Research Aquarium. https://www.fao.org/3/cc2822en/cc2822en.pdf
• ¹²² Ortega-Cisneros, K., Cochrane, K.L., Rivers, N. & Sauer, W.H.H. 2021. Assessing South Africa’s Potential to Address Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Fisheries Sector. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8. www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.652955
• ¹²³ Karlson, B., Andersen, P., Arneborg, L., Cembella, A., Eikrem, W., John, U., West, J.J. et al. 2021. Harmful algal blooms and their effects in coastal seas of Northern Europe. Harmful Algae, 102: 101989. doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2021.101989
• ¹²⁴ DFFE (Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment). 2019. National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Republic of South Africa. DFFE. www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/docs/nationalclimatechange_adaptationstrategy_ue10november2019.pdf
• ¹²⁵ van Diemen, E. 2022. Situation Red Alert issued to recover live rock lobster after mass red tide walkout. In: Daily Maverick. [Cited July 2023]. www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-03-04-situation-red-alert-issued-to-recover-live-rock-lobster-after-mass-red-tide-walkout/
• ¹²⁶ Cockcroft, A.C. 2001. Jasus lalandii “walkouts” or mass strandings in South Africa during the 1990s: an overview. Marine and Freshwater Research, 52(8): 1085. doi.org/10.1071/MF01100
• ¹²⁷ Cockcroft, A.C. & Payne, A.I.L. 1999. A cautious fisheries management policy in South Africa: the fisheries for rock lobster. Marine Policy, 23(6): 587–600. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-597X(98)00045-1
• ¹²⁸ Eggers, J., Cochrane, K. & Sauer, W. 2022. Estimating the economic income and social contributions derived from the South African west coast rock lobster fishery. African Journal of Marine Science, 44(3): 255–269. doi.org/10.2989/1814232X.2022.2104926
• ¹²⁹ Philippines Office of Civil Defense and Humanitarian Country Team. 2019. Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy) Joint Rapid Assessment of Impact and Needs. www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/191211_typhoon_kammuri_tisoy_rapid_assessment_report_rev.pdf
• ¹³⁰ Philippines Office of Civil Defense and Humanitarian Country Team. 2020. Super Typhoon Goni (Rolly) Humanitarian Needs and Priorities. https://reliefweb.int/attachments/50a2637e-bfcb-3452-ab40-4a7c0a99cd32/PHL-TyphoonGoni-HumanitarianNeedsPriorities-201109.pdf
• ¹³¹ FAO. 2022. Philippines: Damages and needs assessment of families affected by Super Typhoon Rai (“Odette”) in selected provinces of Region VIII and Region XIII. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cc0207en
• ¹³² Philippines Office of Civil Defense and Humanitarian Country Team. 2022. Consolidated Needs Assessment Report Revision: Super Typhoon Rai (Odette). https://reliefweb.int/attachments/810f3297-b89d-3088-b589-6ecb34cc58c8/2022%20Consolidated%20Needs%20Assessment%20Report%20Revision%20-%20Super%20Typhoon%20Rai%20-%20Philippines%20%281%29.pdf
• ¹³³ Tonga Statistics Department. 2023. National Accounts. In: Tonga Statistics Department. [Cited June 2023]. https://tongastats.gov.to/statistics/economics/national-accounts/
• ¹³⁴ World Bank. 2023. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (constant 2015 US$) – Tonga. In: World Bank. Washington, DC. [Cited June 2023]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD?locations=TO
• ¹³⁵ Tonga Statistics Department. 2023. Agriculture Census. In: Tonga Statistics Department. [Cited June 2023]. https://tongastats.gov.to/census/agriculture-census/
• ¹³⁶ Tonga Statistics Department. 2023. Household Income and Expenditure Survey. In: Tonga Statistics Department. [Cited June 2023]. https://tongastats.gov.to/survey/hies-survey/
• ¹³⁷ IPCC. 2019. Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, eds. Geneva. www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
• ¹³⁸ IPCC. 2022. Cross Working Group Attribution. Hope, P., W. Cramer, M. van Aalst, G. Flato, K. Frieler, N. Gillett, C. Huggel, J. Minx, F. Otto, C. Parmesan, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Slangen, D. Stone, L. Terray, R. Vautard, and X. Zhang. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change- H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama, eds. p 149–152. Cambridge, UK and New York. Cambridge University Press. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf
• ¹³⁹ IPCC. 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 423–553. Cambridge, UK and New York, Cambridge University Press. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf
• ¹⁴⁰ FAO. 2023. Crops and livestock products. In: FAOSTAT. Rome. [Cited June 2023]. www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
• ¹⁴¹ Gillett, N.P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B.D. et al. 2016. The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6, Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3685–3697. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016
• ¹⁴² Heath, M. 2022. Argentina soy belt drought awakens ghost of 2018 production “disaster”. In: Reuters. 10 February 2022. [Cited 16 May 2023]. www.reuters.com/business/environment/argentina-farm-belt-drought-awakens-ghost-2018-soybean-disaster-2022-02-10/
• ¹⁴³ Bureau of National Statistics Kazakhstan. 2022. Statistics of agriculture, forestry, hunting and fisheries. https://stat.gov.kz
• ¹⁴⁴ North Africa Post. 2019. Morocco’s Central bank expects fewer wheat yield in 2019. In: North Africa Post. Rabat. [Cited 17 March 2023]. https://northafricapost.com/29126-moroccos-central-bank-expects-fewer-wheat-yield-in-2019.html
• ¹⁴⁵ FAO. 2023. Crops and Livestock Products. In: FAOSTAT. Rome. [Cited June 2023]. www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
• ¹⁴⁶ CRED. Emergency Events Database (EM-Dat), the international Disaster Database. In: CRED. [Cited 17 March 2023]. https://www.emdat.be/
• ¹⁴⁷ Cisse, G. & McLeman, R. 2022. Health, Wellbeing, and the Changing Structure of Communities. In: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama, eds. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter07.pdf
• ¹⁴⁸ FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. 2023. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023. Urbanization, agrifood systems transformation and healthy diets across the rural–urban continuum https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc3017en
• ¹⁴⁹ FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. 2020. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca9692en
• ¹⁵⁰ FAO. 2021. Niger | Moyens d’existence agricoles et sécurité alimentaire dans le cadre de la covid-19. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb4622fr
• ¹⁵¹ Ranjan Jena, P., Kalli, R. & Chandra Tanti, P. 2022. Impact of Covid-19 on Agricultural System and Food Prices: The Case of India. In: U. Bacha, ed. Rural Health. IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98905
• ¹⁵² FAO. 2021. Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Results from household surveys in 11 countries with high pre-existing levels of food insecurity – Cross-country monitoring report. May 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb4747en
• ¹⁵³ FAO 2020. Second Rapid Assessment of Food and Nutrition Security in the Context of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: May – July 2020. Dhaka. doi.org/10.4060/cb1018en
• ¹⁵⁴ FAO. 2020. National agrifood systems and COVID-19 in Liberia. Effects, policy responses and long term implications. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb2114en
• ¹⁵⁵ FAO. 2021. Liberia | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring Report – January 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb3618en
• ¹⁵⁶ FAO & WFP. 2020. Covid-19 impacts on agri-food value chains: Libya. Cairo, FAO and WFP. doi.org/10.4060/cb3089en
• ¹⁵⁷ FAO & WFP. 2021. Myanmar | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring report – May 2021. Rome, FAO and WFP. doi.org/10.4060/cb5218en
• ¹⁵⁸ FAO & WFP. 2022. Myanmar | Shocks, agricultural livelihoods and food security. Monitoring report, June 2022. Rome, FAO and WFP. doi.org/10.4060/cc0562en
• ¹⁵⁹ FAO. 2021. Sierra Leone | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring report – May 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb4396en
• ¹⁶⁰ FAO, IFAD & WFP. 2020. South Sudan, COVID-19 Impacts Assessment Results on Agriculture and Food Security in South Sudan. Rome, FAO. https://www.fao.org/3/cb0208en/CB0208EN.pdf
• ¹⁶¹ FAO. 2021. The Sudan | Food supply, agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring Report – January 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb2262en
• ¹⁶² FAO. 2021. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring Report – January 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb3178en
• ¹⁶³ FAO. 2021. Yemen – Shocks, agricultural livelihoods and food security. Monitoring report, December 2021. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb7844en
• ¹⁶⁴ FAO. 2021. Impact of COVID-19 on the delivery of veterinary services and animal disease reporting: May–June 2020/June–August 2020. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb5649en
• ¹⁶⁵ Mthembu, B.E., Mkhize, X. & Arthur, G.D. 2022. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Agricultural Food Production among Smallholder Farmers in Northern Drakensberg Areas of Bergville, South Africa. Agronomy, 12(2): 531. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12020531
• ¹⁶⁶ Ahmed, J.U., Akter, S. & Majumder, K.A. 2021. Impact of COVID‐19 on agricultural production and distribution in South Asia. World Food Policy, 7(2): 168–182. doi.org/10.1002/wfp2.12032
• ¹⁶⁷ Rahman, M.T., Akter, S., Rana, M.R., Sabuz, A.A. & Jubayer, M.F. 2022. How COVID-19 pandemic is affecting achieved food security in Bangladesh: A perspective with required policy interventions. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 7: 100258. doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2021.100258
• ¹⁶⁸ GNAFC (Global Network Against Food Crises). 2020. Food Crises and Covid-19: Emerging Evidence and Implications. An analysis of acute food insecurity and agri-food systems during COVID-19 pandemic. Technical Note. Rome, Technical Support Unit (TSU) of the Global Network Against Food Crises. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/food-crises-and-covid-19-emerging-evidence-and-implications-technical-note
• ¹⁶⁹ Varshney, D., Roy, D. & Meenakshi, J.V. 2020. Impact of COVID-19 on agricultural markets: assessing the roles of commodity characteristics, disease caseload and market reforms. Indian Economic Review, 55(S1): 83–103. doi.org/10.1007/s41775-020-00095-1
• ¹⁷⁰ OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2020. Covid-19 and the food and agriculture sector: Issues and policy responses. Paris. www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-the-food-and-agriculture-sector-issues-and-policy-responses-a23f764b/
• ¹⁷¹ FAO. 2022. Pakistan. DIEM – Data in Emergencies Monitoring brief, round 3 Results and recommendations June 2022. Rome. https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=CC0783EN
• ¹⁷² FAO. 2022, Lebanon, DIEM – Data in Emergencies Monitoring brief, round 2 Results and recommendations June 2022. Rome. https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc0932en
• ¹⁷³ FAO. 2020. Food Security in Iraq – Impact of COVID-19, Rome. https://www.wfp.org/publications/food-security-iraq-impact-covid-19
• ¹⁷⁴ FAO. 2021. Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb4747en
• ¹⁷⁵ FAO. 2021. Somalia | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb2947en
• ¹⁷⁶ Sánchez-Cordón, P.J., Montoya, M., Reis, A.L. & Dixon, L.K. 2018. African swine fever: A re-emerging viral disease threatening the global pig industry. The Veterinary Journal, 233: 41–48. doi.org/10.1016/j.tvjl.2017.12.025
• ¹⁷⁷ WOAH. 2022. African Swine Fever (ASF) — Situation Report 8, 2022. Paris. www.oie.int/app/uploads/2022/03/asf-report8.pdf
• ¹⁷⁸ Normile, D. 2019. African swine fever marches across much of Asia. Science, 364(6441): 617–618. doi.org/10.1126/science.364.6441.617
• ¹⁷⁹ FAO. 2020. Report on African Swine Fever (ASF) in Asia and the Pacific. Thirty-fifth Session of the FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific (APRC 35). Rome. https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/NB742EN/
• ¹⁸⁰ Frezal, C., Gay, S.H. & Nenert, C. 2021. The Impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 156. Paris, OECD. doi.org/10.1787/96d0410d-en
• ¹⁸¹ Zhao, J., Bai, Z. & Ma, L. 2019. China needs long-term solutions for African Swine Fever. Science Bulletin, 64(20): 1469–1471. doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.08.015
• ¹⁸² Song, H., Li, J. & Jin, Z. 2023. Nonlinear dynamic modeling and analysis of African swine fever with culling in China. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 117: 106915. doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2022.106915
• ¹⁸³ Zhang, P., Nie, T., Ma, J. & Chen, H. 2022. Identification of suitable areas for African swine fever occurrence in China using geographic information system-based multi-criteria analysis. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 209: 105794. doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105794
• ¹⁸⁴ USDA. 2022. Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Washington, DC., USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/73666448x?locale=en
• ¹⁸⁵ Guberti, V., Khomenko, S., Masiulis, M. & Kerba S. 2022. African swine fever in wild boar – Ecology and biosecurity. Second edition. FAO Animal Production and Health Manual No. 28. Rome, FAO, WOAH and European Commission. https://www.fao.org/3/cc0785en/cc0785en.pdf
• ¹⁸⁶ Rozstalnyy, A., Roche, X., TagoPacheco, D., Kamata, A., BeltranAlcrudo, D., Khomenko, S., Lockhart, C. et al. 2022. Qualitative risk assessment for African swine fever virus introduction: Caribbean, South, Central and North Americas. FAO Animal Production and Health Papers No 18. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb8748en
• ¹⁸⁷ FAO. 2021. FAO Statistical Yearbook – World Food and Agriculture. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cb4477en
• ¹⁸⁸ Jean-Pierre, R.P., Hagerman, A.D. & Rich, K.M. 2022. An analysis of African Swine Fever consequences on rural economies and smallholder swine producers in Haiti. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.960344/full
• ¹⁸⁹ Casal, J., Tago, D., Pineda, P., Tabakovski, B., Santos, I., Benigno, C., Huynh, T., Ciaravino, G. & Beltran‐Alcrudo, D. 2022. Evaluation of the economic impact of classical and African swine fever epidemics using OutCosT, a new spreadsheet‐based tool. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69(5): e2474–e2484. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14590
• ¹⁹⁰ Mason-D’Croz, D., Bogard, J.R., Herrero, M., Robinson, S., Sulser, T.B., Wiebe, K., Willenbockel, D. & Godfray, H.C.J. 2020. Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China. Nature food, 1(4): 221–228. doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-0057-2
• ¹⁹¹ Nguyen-Thi, T., Pham-Thi-Ngoc, L., Nguyen-Ngoc, Q., Dang-Xuan, S., Lee, H.S., Nguyen-Viet, H., Padungtod, P. et al. 2021. An Assessment of the Economic Impacts of the 2019 African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Vietnam. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8. www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.686038
• ¹⁹² Savioli, G., Ahmadi, B.V., Muñoz, V., Rosso, F. & Schuppers, M. 2022. A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69(5): e1768–e1786. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14512
• ¹⁹³ PRIO (Peace Research Institute Oslo). 2020. Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019. Oslo. https://www.prio.org/publications/12756
• ¹⁹⁴ Murray, V., Abrahams, J., Abdallah, C., Ahmed, K., Angeles, L., Benouar, D., Brenes Torres, A., Chang Hun, C., Cox, S., Douris, J., Fagan, L., Fra Paleo, U., Han, Q., Handmer, J., Hodson, S., Khim, W., Mayner, L., Moody, N., Moraes, L. L. O.; Nagy, M., Norris, J., Peduzzi, P., Perwaiz, A., Peters, K., Radisch, J., Reichstein, M., Schneider, J., Smith, A., Souch, C., Stevance A-S., Triyanti, A., Weir, M., & Wright, N. 2021. Hazard Information Profiles: Supplement to UNDRR-ISC Hazard Definition & Classification Review: Technical Report. Geneva, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction; Paris, International Science Council. https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/hazard-information-profiles-hips
• ¹⁹⁵ UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). 2023. GAR Special Report: Measuring Resilience for the Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva. https://www.undrr.org/gar/gar2023-special-report
• ¹⁹⁶ UNDRR. 2019. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019. Geneva. https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2019
• ¹⁹⁷ UNDRR. 2023. The Report of the Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. Geneva. https://www.undrr.org/publication/report-midterm-review-implementation-sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030
• ¹⁹⁸ General Assembly of the United Nations. 2023. Main findings and recommendations of the midterm review of the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. Seventy-seventh session, 690. https://www.undrr.org/publication/report-main-findings-and-recommendations-midterm-review-implementation-sendai-framework
• ¹⁹⁹ Peters, K. 2022. Evidence of positive progress on Disaster Risk Reduction in the Humanitarian-Development-Peace nexus: Thematic report to inform the Mid-Term Review of the Sendai Framework. https://sendaiframework-mtr.undrr.org/publication/thematic-study-evidence-positive-progress-disaster-risk-reduction-humanitarian
• ²⁰⁰ Peters, L. 2021. Beyond disaster vulnerabilities: An empirical investigation of the causal pathways linking conflict to disaster risks. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 55:102092. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420921000583?casa_token=YZnxgGpfocMAAAAA:pNqonePbjM2CZoKMKKvu9ufQEXHV2R9NTbptQV1_q1utaDOd04qGHO_X4k8Y3K221NB3aCbYSfQ
• ²⁰¹ Zaman, S., Sammonds, P., Ahmed, B. & Rahman, T. 2020. Disaster risk reduction in conflict contexts: Lessons learned from the lived experiences of Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50: 101694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101694
• ²⁰² Nemeth, S., & Lai, B.. 2022. When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war? Journal of Peace Research 59 (1): 28–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211061952
• ²⁰³ Gaillard, J.-C., Clavé, E., & Kelman, I. 2008. Wave of peace? Tsunami disaster policy in Aceh, Indonesia. Geoforum 39 (1): 511–526. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718507001662
• ²⁰⁴ Caso, N., Hilhorst, D., Mena, R., & Papyrakis, E. 2023. Does disaster contribute to armed conflict? A quantitative analysis of disaster–conflict co-occurrence between 1990 and 2017. International Journal of Development Issues. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDI-01-2023-0015/full/html
• ²⁰⁵ Mach, K. J., Kraan, C.M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., et al. 2019. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571 (7764): 193–197. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
• ²⁰⁶ von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., & Buhaug, H. 2016. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (44): 12391–12396. https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1607542113
• ²⁰⁷ Arai, T. 2012. Rebuilding Pakistan in the aftermath of the floods: Disaster relief as conflict prevention. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 7 (1): 51–65. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48603409
• ²⁰⁸ Ide, T. 2023. Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/14970.001.0001
• ²⁰⁹ Mercy Corps & ACAPS. 2020. Yemen: Food supply chain. Thematic report. https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/yemen-food-supply-chain-thematic-report-16-december-2020
• ²¹⁰ European Union, World Bank, United Nations. 2019. Guidance for PDNA in Conflict Situations. https://www.undp.org/publications/pdna-guidance-integrating-conflict-sensitivity
• ²¹¹ European Union, World Bank, United Nations (2019). “GUIDANCE FOR PDNA IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS.” Available at: https://www.undp.org/publications/pdna-guidance-integrating-conflict-sensitivity
• ²¹² UNDRR (2023). GAR Special Report: Measuring Resilience for the Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva. Available at: https://www.undrr.org/gar/gar2023-special-report
• ²¹³ State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2020. The official portal. In: Government of Ukraine. [Cited June 2023]. www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
• ²¹⁴ USDA. 2022. Ukraine Agricultural Production and Trade. Washington, DC., USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/Ukraine-Ag-Production-Trade.pdf
• ²¹⁵ Kyiv School of Economics. 2021. Assessing the role of small farmers and households in agriculture and the rural economy and measures to support their sustainable development. Kyiv. https://kse.ua/wpcontent/uploads/2021/02/KSE‐Smallholders.pdf
• ²¹⁶ FAO. 2022. Ukraine: Impact assessment results (September to October 2022). Data in Emergencies Hub. In: FAO. Rome. [Cited 12 July 2023]. https://data-in-emergencies.fao.org/apps/c5e28e7c958b4748bb806e1fe28ccf7b/explore
• ²¹⁷ Conflict Observatory. 2022. Ukraine’s Crop Storage Infrastructure Post-Invasion Impact Assessment. In: Conflict Observatory. [Cited June 2023]. https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/apps/sites/#/home/pages/grain-1
• ²¹⁸ UNEP. 2022. The Environmental Impact of the Conflict in Ukraine: A Preliminary Review. Nairobi. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/environmental-impact-conflict-ukraine-preliminary-review
• ²¹⁹ Turton, S., Sineat, Y. & Nitta, Y. 2019. African swine fever wipes out Asia’s backyard pig farmers. In: Nikkei Asia. [Cited 17 May 2023]. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Agriculture/African-swine-fever-wipes-out-Asia-s-backyard-pig-farmers
• ²²⁰ Coughlan de Perez, E., van Aalst, M., Deva, C., van den Hurk, B., Jongman, B., Klose, T., Linnerooth-Bayer, J. & Suarez, P. 2014. Managing the risk of extreme events in a changing climate – trends and opportunities in the disaster-related funding landscape. Input paper prepared for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015. The Hague, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/Managing-the-risk-of-extreme-events-in-a-changing-climate.pdf
• ²²¹ Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Parker, D.J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D.S. & Thielen, J. 2015. The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy, 51: 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016
• ²²² Costella, C., Jaime, C., Arrighi, J., Coughlan de Perez, E., Suarez, P. & van Aalst, M. 2017. Scalable and sustainable: How to build anticipatory capacity into social protection systems. IDS Bulletin. Vol. 48 No. 4. https://bulletin.ids.ac.uk/index.php/idsbo/article/view/2885
• ²²³ Baig, S.P., Rizvi, A., Josella, M. & Palanca-Tan, R. 2015. Cost and Benefits of Ecosystem Based Adaptation: The Case of the Philippines. Gland, Switzerland, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2016-009.pdf
• ²²⁴ FAO & UNHCR. 2018. Cost–benefit analysis of forestry interventions for supplying woodfuel in a refugee situation in the United Republic of Tanzania. Rome, FAO. https://www.fao.org/3/ca0164en/CA0164EN.pdf
• ²²⁵ Seekao, C. & Pharino, C. 2018. Cost–benefit analysis of shrimp farming’s flood risk reduction strategies in Thailand. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11: S805–S816. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12259
• ²²⁶ Asha, N., Kikulwe, E., Nowakunda, K., Ajambo, S. & Naziri, D. 2015. Technical report: Structure of the Cooking Banana Value Chain in Uganda and Opportunities for Value Addition and Postharvest Losses Reduction. CGIAR. www.rtb.cgiar.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/RPS/2/3.pdf
• ²²⁷ FAO. 2017. Benefits of Farm-Level Disaster Risk Reduction Practices in Agriculture – Preliminary Findings. Rome. www.fao.org/3/a-i7319e.pdf
• ²²⁸ FAO. 2019. Disaster risk reduction at farm level: Multiple benefits, no regrets. Results from cost–benefit analyses conducted in a multi-country study, 2016-2018. Rome. www.fao.org/3/ca4429en/CA4429EN.pdf
• ²²⁹ FAO. 2021. Anticipatory action: Changing the way we manage disasters. Rome. www.fao.org/3/cb7145en/cb7145en.pdf
• ²³⁰ FAO. 2018. Mongolia: Impact of early warning action. Protecting herder livelihoods ahead of dzud winter. Rome. www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/CA2181EN/
• ²³¹ FAO. 2019. Colombia: Impact of early warning action. Boosting food security and social cohesion on the frontline of the migration crisis. Rome. www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/CA6818EN/
• ²³² FAO. 2018. Early warning early action in Sudan. Rome. https://www.fao.org/3/i9383en/I9383EN.pdf
• ²³³ FAO. 2018. Horn of Africa: Impact of early warning early action. Protecting pastoralist livelihoods ahead of drought. Rome. www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CA0227EN
• ²³⁴ FAO. 2019. Madagascar: Impact of Early Warning Early Action. Protecting farming livelihoods from drought and food insecurity. Rome. www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CA3933EN/
• ²³⁵ FAO. 2019. The Sudan: Impact of Early Warning Early Action. Protecting agropastoralist livelihoods ahead of drought. Rome. www.fao.org/3/ca4653en/ca4653en.pdf
• ²³⁶ Kumar, A. 2022. Connecting anticipatory action and disaster risk reduction: perspectives from UNDRR. In: UNDRR. Geneva. [Cited June 2023]. www.preventionweb.net/news/connecting-anticipatory-action-and-disaster-risk-reduction-perspectives-undrr
• ²³⁷ UNDRR. 2023. Disaster Risk Management. In: UNDRR. Geneva. [Cited June 2023]. www.undrr.org/terminology/disaster-risk-management
• ²³⁸ Anticipation Hub. 2021. A step forward for anticipatory action at COP26. In: Anticipation Hub. [Cited June 2023]. www.anticipation-hub.org/news/a-step-forward-for-anticipatory-action-at-cop26
• ²³⁹ IFRC, FAO, WFP, OCHA & Start Network. 2021. Enabling Anticipatory Action at Scale Policy Brief for Donor Governments. www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Policy_Papers/AATF_Policy_Brief_for_Donor_Governments_May_2021.pdf
• ²⁴⁰ International Movement. 2022. Power of Humanity. Council of Delegates of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement. Geneva. https://rcrcconference.org/app/uploads/2022/05/09_CoD22-Anticipatory-action-Background-document-FINAL-EN.pdf
• ²⁴¹ Levine, S., Wilkinson, E., Weingärtner, L. & Mall, P. 2021. Anticipatory action for livelihood protection. A collective endeavour. Working Paper 580. Overseas Development Institute. https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/202006_odi_anticipatory_action_for_livelihood_protection_wp_final.pdf
• ²⁴² Scott, Z. 2022. Finance for Early Action: Tracking commitments, trends, challenges and opportunities. REAP (Risk-informed Early Action Partnership). www.insdevforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/20220613_Finance-for-Early-Action_FINAL-1-1.pdf
• ²⁴³ Khim, W. 2020. Disaster risk reduction in times of COVID-19: What have we learned? Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb0748en
• ²⁴⁴ Lawson, R.G. & Jurs, P.C. 1990. New index for clustering tendency and its application to chemical problems. Journal of Chemical Information and Computer Sciences, 30(1): 36–41. https://doi.org/10.1021/ci00065a010
• ²⁴⁵ FAO. 2023. Crops and livestock products. In: FAOSTAT. Rome. [Cited June 2023]. www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
• ²⁴⁶ Lange, S., Mengel, M., Treu, S. & Büchner, M. 2022. ISIMIP3a atmospheric climate input data (v1.0). In: ISIMIP. [Cited July 2023]. doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.982724
• ²⁴⁷ Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M. et al. 2023. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact modelevaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Preprint. EGUsphere. doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-281
• ²⁴⁸ Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Makowski, D. & Gornott, C. 2020. Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors. Scientific Reports, 10(19650). doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76315-8
• ²⁴⁹ Chemura, A. Nangombe, S., Gleixner, S., Chinyoka, S. & Gornott, C. 2022. Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability Over Southern Africa. Frontiers in Climate, 4: 890210. doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.890210
• ²⁵⁰ Sultan, B., Defrance, D. & Iizumi, T. 2019, Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models. Scientific Reports, 6.9.2019: 12834. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0
• ²⁵¹ Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Makowski, D. & Gornott, C. 2020. Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors. Scientific Reports, 10(19650). doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76315-8
• ²⁵² Gillett, N.P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B.D. et al. 2016. The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6, Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3685–3697. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016
• ²⁵³ Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K. et al. 2019. Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7): 2727–2765. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019
• ²⁵⁴ Lange, S. 2019. Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 3055–3070. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019
• ²⁵⁵ Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K. et al. 2019. Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7): 2727–2765. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019
• ²⁵⁶ IPCC. 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 423–553. Cambridge, UK and New York, Cambridge University Press. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf
• ²⁵⁷ Guo, H. Bao, A., Chen, T., Zheng, G., Wang, Y., Jiang, L. & De Maeyer, P. 2021. Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia. Atmospheric Research, 252, 105451. doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2021.105451
• ²⁵⁸ Mesgari, E., Hosseini, S.A., Hemmesey, M.S., Houshyar, M. & Partoo, L.G. 2022. Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(10): 3607. doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.195
• ²⁵⁹ Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H. & Nishimori, M. 2018. Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels. International Journal of Climatology, 38(14): 5405–5417. doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818
• ²⁶⁰ Ishii, M. & Mori, N. 2020. d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7: 58. doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00367-7
• ²⁶¹ Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H. & Nishimori, M. 2018. Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels. International Journal of Climatology, 38(14): 5405–5417. doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818
• ²⁶² Sultan, B., Defrance, D. & Iizumi, T. 2019, Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models. Scientific Reports, 6.9.2019: 12834. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0
• ²⁶³ Flynn, C.M. & Mauritsen, T. 2020. On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 7829–7842. doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020
• ²⁶⁴ Forster, P. et al. 2021. The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In: V. Masson-Delmotte, et al., eds. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press.
• ²⁶⁵ Meshesha, D.T., Moahmmed, M. & Yosuf, D. 2019. Estimating carrying capacity and stocking rates of rangelands in Harshin District, Eastern Somali Region, Ethiopia. Ecology and Evolution, 9(23): 13309–13319. doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5786
• ²⁶⁶ The Nansen Initiative. 2015. The Nansen Initiatve. Global Consultation. Conference Report : Geneva, 12-23 October 2015. https://www.eda.admin.ch/dam/eda/en/documents/aussenpolitik/menschenrechte-menschliche-sicherheit/2017-und-aelter/Nansen-GCR2015-screen.pdf.
• ²⁶⁷ FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. 2022. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022. Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. Rome, FAO. doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en
• ²⁶⁸ FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. 2020. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca9692en
• ²⁶⁹ IOM (International Organization of Migration). 2017. World Migration Report 2018. IOM World Migration Report. United Nations. https://doi.org/10.18356/f45862f3-en
• ^a 行政区划，相当于州或省。
• ^b 用来预测作物生长速度的热量累积计量单位。
• ^c 参见国际灾害数据库 （EM-DAT）https://public.emdat.be/
• ^d “其他”危害类别包括生物危害、地外危害和复杂型危害。此外，灾害数量增加的一部分原因是数据报告工作有所改进，但主要原因是天气和气候相关危害（如洪水、干旱、极端温度）引起灾害数量增加。相反，地震、火山喷发和块体运动等地球物理事件的数量则在一段时间内相对保持稳定。虽然近几十年事件的总体数量已趋向平稳，但随着大气中温室气体继续积聚，预计数量仍会上升。
• ^e 先前的出版物于2015年、2017年和2021年发布。
• ^f https://www.emdat.be/
• ^g https://www.desinventar.net/
• ^h https://www.gfdrr.org/en/disaster-risk-analytics
• ⁱ https://www.ifrc.org/document/world-disasters-report-2022
• ^j https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/data-explorer.html; https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html
• ^k 参见联合国大会第A/RES/71/276号决议。
• ^l EM-DAT数据库中还包括非本报告讨论范围的其他灾害相关数据。详情参见技术附件2。
• ^m 注意，报告机制的发展变化会影响这些数字。与20世纪90年代初相比，EM-DAT数据库目前报告的事件更多，导致总数会略有偏差。
• ⁿ 值得注意的是，此处所用指标是两组实物数量（以吨表示）乘以相同价格后的比率。这意味着该比率仅反映数量。价格的唯一作用是计算总量，否则就无法比较。
• ^o 这种情况下，损失与虚拟产量的比率直接以吨为基准，假设产量具有足够的均一性，可以累加。
• ^p 估计平均需求量指能满足50%健康人群（每日）需求所需的量。
• ^q 具体需求量如下：钙：男女均为800毫克；铁：男6毫克，女8.1毫克；锌：男9.4毫克，女6.8毫克；镁：男350毫克，女265毫克；磷：男女均为580毫克；维生素A，视黄醇活性当量：男625微克，女500微克；维生素B1：男1.0 毫克，女0.9毫克；维生素B2：男1.1毫克，女0.9毫克；维生素C：男75毫克，女60毫克。
• ^r 例如，如果具备更精细的数据，就有可能评估当特定背景下某种营养素供应充足时，出现一定比例的损失是否属于轻微损失，或者当这种营养素在当地饮食结构中较为稀缺，是否会构成严重的公共卫生问题。
• ^s “归因指采用置信度评估方法来评价多个因果因素对某种变化或事件所起的相对作用的过程”。见政府间气候变化专门委员会。2021。附件 VII: 术语表。摘自：Matthews，J.B.R.、V. Möller、R. van Diemen、 J.S. Fuglestvedt、V. Masson-Delmotte、 C. Méndez、S. Semenov、A. Reisinger编。 《2021年气候变化：物理学依据》。政府间气候变化专门委员会第一工作组为第六次评估报告提供的材料。Masson-Delmotte，V.、P. Zhai、A. Pirani、S.L. Connors、C. Péan、S. Berger、N. Caud、 Y. Chen、L. Goldfarb、M.I. Gomis、M. Huang、K. Leitzell、E. Lonnoy、 J.B.R. Matthews、T.K. Maycock、T. Waterfield、O. Yelekçi、R. Yu和B. Zhou编。剑桥大学出版社，英国剑桥，美国纽约，第2215–2256页。www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf
• ^t 本次研究所选择的对象是《2019冠状病毒病全球人道主义应对计划》（人道主义事务协调办公室，2020）或《全球粮食危机报告》（世界粮食计划署，2020、2021）中的重点国家，包括：阿富汗、中非共和国、乍得、哥伦比亚、海地、伊拉克、黎巴嫩、利比里亚、利比亚、马里、莫桑比克、缅甸、尼日尔、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、塞拉利昂、索马里、多哥、津巴布韦。
• ^u 这些国家包括：阿富汗、中非共和国、哥伦比亚、刚果民主共和国、利比里亚、马里、尼日尔、塞拉利昂、索马里、也门、津巴布韦。
• ^v 本次研究所选择的对象是《2019冠状病毒病全球人道主义应对计划》（人道主义事务协调办公室，2020）或《全球粮食危机报告》（世界粮食计划署，2020、2021）中的重点国家。以往的研究在时间和范围上都存在局限，而本次分析的是三年时间内重复进行的跨国调查结果，能展示防控措施对农业生产的滞后影响。
• ^w 阿富汗、中非共和国、哥伦比亚、刚果民主共和国、利比里亚、马里、尼日尔、塞拉利昂、索马里、也门、津巴布韦。
• ^x 本章引述的所有对数几率系数的置信区间均为95%。
• ^y 参见对原本粮食不安全水平较高的11个国家的家庭调查结果。粮农组织。2021。《2019冠状病毒病背景下的农业生计和粮食安全》，跨国监测报告。罗马。https://www.fao.org/3/cb4747en/cb4747en.pdf
• ^z 非洲、美洲、亚洲、欧洲和大洋洲。
• ^aa 跨省生猪价差指价格最高省份的生猪价格减去价格最低省份的生猪价格。所有省份已包括在内，仅青海省因数据限制除外。
• ^ab 非洲猪瘟的影响是通过查阅文献和使用粮农组织OutCosT工具计算直接损失和应对成本来评估的。OutCosT工具已完成了试点，以回顾性地确定越南老街省（2020年）和菲律宾（2019年）暴发非洲猪瘟造成的成本，包括疾病造成的减产、对贸易的影响以及防治成本，包括治疗、监测和宣传活动。估计受影响的每家农场和每头猪的成本有助于预测疾病传播的影响¹⁸³
• ^ac 推断时，我们假设两个时期实施了完全相同的防控政策，即用于校准工具的时期和用于生成成本估计数的时期。
• ^ad 因非洲猪瘟而死亡的生猪208594头/屠宰生猪545729头 = 38%。
• ^ae 38%x1804246头屠宰生猪 = 2020年估计因非洲猪瘟损失的689637头生猪。
• ^af 例如2019冠状病毒病疫情相关因素。
• ^ag 对“冲突”一词进行定性十分重要。粮农组织认识到，冲突不一定是武装冲突或暴力冲突，因此采用以下定义（例如在以下出版物中采用的定义：粮农组织。2022。《〈2030年议程〉背景下维持和平操作方法–实用指南》。罗马。参见：https://doi.org/10.4060/cc1021en）：“冲突是人类互动的一个不可避免的方面，当两个或两个以上个人或团体追求互不相容的目标时，就会出现冲突。冲突可以是暴力的，就像战争中的那样，也可以是非暴力的，就像选举或对抗性法律程序中的那样。如能建设性地引导冲突进入解决进程，冲突可能是有益的。”）。引自：Snodderly （编）。（2018年）。《冲突管理和和平建设术语集》。第二版。美国和平研究所。华盛顿特区。参见https://www.usip.org/publications/usip-peace-terms-glossary
• ^ah https://www.prio.org/news/2736
• ^ai 落实《仙台框架》目标E。注意，并非所有战略都使用“武装冲突”字眼且仅指“冲突”。此处也使用战略原文中使用的提法。
• ^aj 实证来自21个国家：阿富汗、阿尔及利亚、孟加拉国、布隆迪、哥伦比亚、埃及、印度、印度尼西亚、伊朗、缅甸、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、秘鲁、菲律宾、俄罗斯、索马里、斯里兰卡、塔吉克斯坦、泰国、土耳其、乌干达。
• ^ak 《索马里干旱影响和需求评估》（2017年）。
• ^al 乌克兰政府估计，约6.2万平方英里领土（160579平方公里）可能已被地雷和未爆弹药所污染，包括该国10%的农田。
• ^am 粮农组织。2019。《农场层面减少灾害风险：多重惠益，不留遗憾》。罗马。www.fao.org/3/ca4429en/CA4429EN.pdf。该研究报告收集了来自玻利维亚、柬埔寨、哥伦比亚、圭亚那、海地、牙买加、老挝、巴基斯坦、菲律宾和乌干达的实证。
• ^an 虽然不可能单独分析减灾良好做法中每项干预措施的每个要素对香蕉产量和回报的影响，但各种干预措施之间的协同效应可能发挥了关键作用，提高了香蕉种植系统对降雨不足和干旱的抗御能力。
• ^ao （1）水稻种植采用行播和干湿交替法；（2）小麦种植采用农家肥和堆肥；（3）蔬菜种植采用垄作、农家肥、多茬种植和病虫害综合防治；（4）小麦种植采用平整土地和病虫害综合防治；（5）棉花种植采用激光平整、垄作、病虫害综合防治和堆肥；（6）小麦种植采用免耕（条播）栽培和病虫害综合防治；（7）棉花种植采用垄作和病虫害综合防治。
• ^ap 包括暴雨、干旱、高温、有害生物和杂草。
• ^aq 分发家禽、种子、储水桶和设备，以工代赈，修复小型灌溉系统，培训蔬菜生产技术，发展女性领导的农民合作社。
• ^ar 向妇女农民合作社分发鸭子和山羊，举办培训，开展以工代赈项目清理年久失修的水渠。
• ^as 《全球粮食危机报告》2021年将伊加特区域作为重点，指出2020年期间，埃塞俄比亚（860万人）、肯尼亚（190万人）和索马里（210万人）共有1260万人面临重度粮食不安全（粮食安全阶段综合分类第3阶段或以上）⁴²。鉴于非洲之角面临深层次灾害风险，必须采取基于风险的行动来应对各种危害，以保障生计和粮食安全。
• ^at 需要集体应对的大规模突发性灾害和危机。
• ^au 在该阶段，不会飞的幼虫聚集成连贯整齐的虫群，被称为虫带。
• ^av 见防灾网，2023。灾后需求评估，防灾网， 2023年6月引用。https://recovery.preventionweb.net/build-back-better/post-disaster-needs-assessments/country-pdnas
• ^aw 见救济网，2023。仅有报告，救济网，2023年6月引用。https://reliefweb.int/updates?view=reports
• ^ax 见全球减灾和灾后恢复基金，2023。 灾后需求评估，全球减灾和灾后恢复基金， 2023年6月引用。 www.gfdrr.org/en/post-disaster-needs-assessments
• ^ay 见世界银行，2023。世界银行开放知识库，世界银行，2023年6月引用。https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/home