Crop Prospects and Food Situation - no. 4,  december 2012

Trade and Markets Division

Crop Prospects and Food Situation - no. 4, december 2012

Year of publication 2012

Author Trade and Markets Division

Category Bulletin

Edition 1

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Synopsis (short abstract) Firmer production estimates for 2012 confirm tightening wheat and maize supplies while the outlook for rice remains positive. In spite of a contraction in overall cereal utilization in 2012/13, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline by 2 percentage points from the previous season. International prices of all major cereals, except rice, remain well above last year. For wheat and maize, while prices have stabilized in recent weeks, unfavourable weather for 2013 crops in several important regions is a concern. Aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2012 has been revised upwards following a recovery in Western Africa and increased output in the Far East. Consequently, reduced imports are expected in 2012/13...

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As the year draws to a close, FAOs latest estimates confirm that a new record high level of global cereal production was achieved in 2008, sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2008/09 and also allow for a moderate replenishment of world reserves. Most of the increase in production this year has been among the developed countries, with that in the developing countries rising just marginally. In the developing group, outputs rose somewhat more among the Low-Income Food- Deficit Countries, especially in countries where agriculture production support was provided by governments...

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